Iran-Saudi Rapprochement Illustrates the Success of China’s Exemplary Diplomacy

March 24, 2023

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Introduction

Ever since the Iranian revolution in 1979, the region has witnessed the turbulence of inter-state and intra-state conflicts; significantly the Iran-Iraq war 1981-1988, first gulf war 1990-91, second gulf war 2003-2011, followed by a decade of the Arab Spring, which virtually destroyed the nation state construct of the Middle East and North African region (MENA). Above all, the oil crises of 1973 catalyzed and incentivized US policy makers to establish permanent military basing in the region to control and maintain an uninterrupted supply of oil. As a result, the US and its allies obtained bases in Saudi Arabia and other gulf countries, which continue to operate today.

 

Another significant development was the division of the region into Saudi and Iranian camps and bitter rivalry between Sunni and Shia Muslims. Instead of creating harmony and stability, the USA fueled these fires to create further divisions and hatred. Over the last two decades, the US-led War on Terror (WoT) and ensuing Arab Spring further widened the gulf between Iran and Saudi Arabia to the extent of animosity. This article examines China’s efforts to bring Iran and Saudi Arabia to the negotiating table, which resulted in this year’s extremely consequential rapprochement. The article also investigates the evolving geo-political developments in the Middle East, its implications on US-China strategic competition and the evolving Balance of Power (BoP).

 

 

Mission Accomplished

After the successful conclusion of his hectic diplomatic work, Mr. Wang Yi, a member of Political Bureau of the CPC and the director of Office of the Foreign Affairs Commission of the CPC Central Committee, congratulated both Iran and Saudi Arabia and hailed their commitment to peace. Mr. Wang Yi stated that “this is a victory for dialogue, a victory for peace, and is major positive news for the world, which is currently so turbulent and restive, and it sends a clear signal.” He added that “the Middle East is for the people of the Middle East, and its fate should be in the hands of the people of the Middle East”. The historic deal signifies a momentous diplomatic victory for China and both gulf neighbors, who signed the historic accord on March 10, 2023, in Beijing under the auspices of Mr. Wang Yi. After the signing ceremony, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Ali Shamkhani and Saudi Arabia's National Security Advisor Musaad bin Mohammed Al-Aiban issued a joint communique endorsing the agreement. The joint statement demonstrates a firm commitment by Iran and Saudi Arabia to take strong measures, which contribute to de-escalation of tensions and promote regional peace and stability. Saudi Arabia and Iran have agreed to restore diplomatic relations and reopen their embassies and missions within two months. They have also agreed to hold talks between foreign ministers to arrange ambassadorial exchange and explore ways to strengthen bilateral relations.

 

 

Successful demonstration of China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI)

It is significant to highlight that since President Xi Jinping proposed a new security concept of common, comprehensive, and sustainable security in 2014, China has relentlessly pursued the promotion of Middle East security devastated by two decades of conflict and power politics. Under the good offices of China, Iran and Saudi Arabia agreed to shed long-held hostilities, join hands to promote peace, and demonstrate their trust in China as an impartial and sincere partner for peace. The success of this agreement raises China’s diplomatic stature as an honest broker and is a litmus test for China’s Global Security Initiative (GSI). AS such, the GSI has become a major beacon of hope and comprehensive road map for resolving the most complex global issues into the future. Thus, the advent of a new era of diplomacy cannot be seen in isolation. The marathon rounds of mediation started with President Xi Jinping’s Head of State diplomacy, when he visited the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia to conduct Sino-Arab and Sino-GCC summits in December 2022, and subsequent visit to Beijing in February 2023 of Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi. In essence, the promises of shared tranquility, security and development, which are the creations of governments, should endure well into the future. Therefore, China has brokered an enduring resolution crucial for the construction of a safe , just and secure Middle East well into the 21^st century.

 

China strongly believes that the future of the Middle East should always remain in the hands of the regions countries and supports the peoples of the Middle East to independently explore their development paths, resolve differences through dialogue and consultation and contribute to enduring peace and stability. China opposes any geopolitical competition that is detrimental to lasting regional peace and will promote security and stability and act as a reliable partner in the development and prosperity of the Middle East.

 

 

Hailed by the international community

The momentous Iran-Saudi rapprochement has inspired a sigh of relief in regional countries and the UN, as era of decades of hostility and animosity have finally ended. The UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres congratulated China for its role in brokering the peace deal and welcomed Saudi Arabia and Iran's agreement to resume diplomatic ties. Jordan’s Foreign Ministry issued a hopeful statement citing the agreement’s enhancement of regional security and stability. Lebanese Foreign Minister Abdallah Bou Habib hailed the agreement stating that it enhanced security and stability in the Middle East and benefit both the region and the world at large.

 

 

Implications for regional peace, stability and prosperity

The Iran-Saudi rapprochement signals the end of the drawn-out proxy wars between Sunni and Shia camps in the Middle East, where intra-state conflicts have inflicted suffering, death, devastations and economic ruin, seriously impacted each country’s comprehensive national power and exacerbated human security issues. For more than seven years the Yemen war has been a flash point between rival blocks pursuing increased spheres of influence at the cost of enormous human suffering. The Yemenis may breathe a collective sigh of relief on realization that Iran-Saudi rapprochement paves the way for meaningful settlement of the bloody conflict through dialogue. Going forward, Chinese investment for reconstruction and infrastructure development has crucial importance for post-war poverty alleviation and improving Yemen’s human security index.

 

Iran and Saudi Arabia are major energy producers with abundant oil and gas reserves, however, constant conflict hindered the optimization of their energy resource exports and security provision for the Strait of Hormuz. Moreover, the evolving regional order offers both countries potential for cooperation on global energy demand, which is essential for the stabilization of global energy price and supply.

 

In the evolving geo-political paradigm of the Middle East, the political leadership of Iran and Saudi Arabia have enormous potential to introduce reality-based policies and enact consensus solutions to conflictual issues to foster sustainable bilateral relations and enduring regional stability.

 

As such, the rapprochement requires a sustainable strategy and development of mechanisms for managing mutual interests and to realize greater cohesion across a region long-plagued by divisions and power politics. The region has a dire need for a comprehensive developmental package to rebuild its devastated infrastructure, which also offers a unique opportunity for the countries of the Middle East to diversify their oil-dependent economies. By developing infrastructure as means of promoting trade, the BRI can help expand the economies of the Middle east countries and create new employment opportunities, for a region that sits astride the crossroads of three continents, to radically improve the overall Human Development Index (HDI) of the people.

 

The Middle East region can ill afford further conflict or struggles for regional dominance, as it gradually recovers from the USA’s disastrous War on Terror. China has proved a responsible power that can help meet the urgent need for increased trade and investment and ensure reliable, affordable, and sustainable energy supplies that underpin global economic development.

 

 

Implications on US-China competition and evolving balance of power (BoP) in the ME

Since the oil crises of 1973, the US regarded the Middle East region as its principle national security priority to guarantee the uninterrupted supply of oil and ensure global energy security. Thus, the US has constructed basing arrangements across the region, including 7000 military personnel in Bahrain, 10,000 at Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar, 3800 at Al Dhafra Air Base in UAE, 2500 in Turkey, 4000 in Djibouti and some 200 trainers in Saudi Arabia. Additionally, during the two decade-long War on Terror, the USA deployed its military forces in Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya, Syria apart from permanent basing highlighted above.

 

Derived from Realist notions of power politics and domination, the USA divided the Middle East and North African region (MENA) into US-Saudi and rival Iranian camps. The use of proxies to dominate opposing camps resulted in devastation across the entire region, caused untold human suffering and pushed the relevant countries into abject poverty. US national security has invariably positioned Iran as an archrival and therefore led the US to pursue conflict over reconciliation.

 

From the Chinese perspective of neutrality, the world’s globalization process is experiencing a new era of interdependence and win-win cooperation, with no room for zero-sum power politics. President Xi Jinping’s visit to Saudi Arabia in December 2022 and hosting of both the Sino-Arab and Sino-GCC Summits are peaks of interdependence and cooperative engagement. President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Beijing in February 2023 completed the frame for generous Middle East and GCC packages of Chinese engagement with the region. China’s engagement centers on infrastructure development to rebuild infrastructure, trade and investment and improve people’s livelihoods via job creation opportunities. Together, China’s engagement initiatives and the regions new found desire for reconciliation constitute an engine for economic growth across regions that has suffered two decades of development stagnation. Importantly, China’s approach and contributions are not based in zero-sum power politics, but cooperative engagement and win-win cooperation.

 

On the face of it, the USA has demonstrated cautious optimism on Iran-Saudi rapprochement, stating that such a development would help de-escalate tension. However, contrary to the facts, US policy makers have begun projecting China’s economic, infrastructure development and HDI improvement efforts as an endeavor to enhance its political sphere of influence in the Middle East. While China has demonstrated its role as an honest broker, the USA continues to pursue hegemony and the zero-sum policies that incited unending conflicts, which are culminating in accelerated credibility loss for Washington both in the Middle East and across the globe.

 

The USA’s policy shift from the Middle East towards the Pivot to Asia, and its siblings the Indo-Pacific strategy, Quad and AUKUS, signaled its all-out effort to contain, encircle and suppress China. The Indo-Pacific concept relies on strengthening alliance partnerships and rebasing US troops across the first and second island chains. However, China’s successful economic and diplomatic engagement in the Middle East has partially reversed US rebalancing efforts.

 

Thus, the USA suffers from increasing anxiety and neuralgia about its vulnerability to Middle East energy supplies and declining economic, political and military influence, in a region where it had exercised primacy for more than five decades. The United States is reeling from the China’s capacity to foster regional peace and stability and will certainly follow its destructive policy of divide and rule to engender a perpetual state in instability and give flip to trivial issues and false pretexts.

 

 

In the final analysis, the evolving geo-political model in the Middle East holds great promise, yet, the path for a smooth transition toward a new paradigm of interdependence and cooperative engagement via a win-win cooperation professed by China, is strewn with obstacles. Many difficult milestones must be reached with each requiring flexibility and resilience in the commitment from China to stay the course and achieve enduring peace, stability, and prosperity for the Middle East.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Please note: The above contents only represent the views of the author, and do not necessarily represent the views or positions of Taihe Institute.

 

 

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